The Barlow Effect

Think back to the time, not many moons ago, when a gaggle of Republican politicians were making noises about how they wanted to be governor of Wyoming. Posturing, pronouncing and pontificating, they tried to stand out in a crowded field of hopefuls who had sugarplum visions of claiming the crown jewel in Wyoming politics.

You know their names: Secretary of State Chuck Gray, Congresswoman Harriet Hageman, State Sen. Bo Biteman, State Treasurer Curt Meier, and a few other lesser lights were all touted as willing replacements for Gov. Mark Gordon. They had their own pep squads to champion them in social media posts and atop public soapboxes.

There were even those who suggested that Gordon should challenge Wyoming’s term-limit statute and run for a third term à la Gov. Ed Herschler.

Fast forward to today, when all those voices from the shadows at the edge of the ol’ campfire have gone eerily silent. Everyone has been mum about the governor’s race since Republican Sen. Eric Barlow tossed his sweaty ol’ Stetson into the ring with the official announcement of his campaign for governor.

Barlow, with his move to be the first to plant his flag on the high ground of the GOP primary, sent all the erstwhile opposition back to their drawing boards to recalculate their chances and read the political chicken entrails in the face of a formidable, bona fide candidate. This is the “Barlow Effect.”

Let’s be realistic, the winner of the GOP primary will be elected Wyoming’s next governor. There are no Mike Sullivans or Dave Freudenthals waiting in the wings for the Democrats, so in my opinion, the Dems’ energies are better invested in rebuilding themselves through down-ballot races.

It’s still early, and candidates can’t even file campaign paperwork until next year. But Barlow’s early entry has introduced an unmistakably powerful new ingredient into the mix. Even the speculation about Gov. Gordon seeking a third term has dwindled to near silence.

Gordon is politically astute enough to know that a primary ballot with both him and Barlow on it would divide the “moderate” GOP vote, and pave the way for a Freedom Caucus-type candidate. Nobody outside the Freedom Caucus wants that.

That said, let’s examine the Wyoming governor’s office as a springboard to Congress. The last time that happened was when Gov. Cliff Hansen was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1967, nearly 60 years ago. The governor’s office, at least in our lifetimes, has historically not been a stepping stone to Congress.

I have a theory about why that is.

First is the difference between the executive branch (governor) and the legislative branch (Congress). Each branch requires a different skill set. A Wyoming governor must be a trail boss, keeping a disparate herd lined out on the trail, moving in one direction through all kinds of weather, keeping the strays tucked in, and fighting off rustlers and ne’er-do-wells who try to disrupt things.

Secondly — and this was confirmed by a conversation with my saddlepal, Rich Lindsey, who served with me on Gov. Sullivan’s staff — Wyomingites expect different things from their governor than from their congressional delegation. We want our governor to be a wise, Solomonic father (or mother) figure who can maintain the family traditions, settle squabbles among the kids, and make sure the household doesn’t go bankrupt.

And we want our delegation to be fire-eating pitbulls who go to Washington and scare the hell outa “libruls.” We send those folks to D.C. because we don’t want them breaking all the porcelain and spooking the horses here at home. Like I said, two different skill sets.

This upcoming election cycle will be packed with political drama. Part of it will be a plebiscite on the Wyoming Freedom Caucus and how they’ve performed since taking control of the House of Representatives last year. Freedom Caucus members will need to campaign on their legislative records, and not simply on their populist rhetoric. Voters in the Big Empty, who have kept receipts, will have the final word on whether they stay in office or not.

And Sen. Barlow’s opening gambit, his initiating an active instead of a passive campaign, will influence the chessboard throughout the governor’s race. Gubernatorial hopefuls of every stripe have had their hands forced, and they’ll need to either fish or cut bait. The rest of the pack have been backed into a corner to plan their counter-moves.

While Barlow has, of course, made himself a target for his opposition, he is the first to do so among legitimate candidates. That requires political initiative and cojones, and it makes his fingerprints the first on this important race. I call it the “Barlow Effect.”

Correction: This column has been updated to correct the spelling of Secretary of State Chuck Gray’s name. —Ed.