CHEYENNE—Wyoming lawmakers will have a little less money to work with during the 2025 general session, according to a Consensus Revenue Estimating Group report presented to lawmakers Thursday.
The state’s official income forecasters, known as CREG, make revenue projections every October to coincide with the governor’s budget preparations. Those estimates are then revised in January to provide the latest data to lawmakers — who hold the state’s purse strings.
The revisions included a $20.5 million reduction in funds flowing to the General Fund and the Budget Reserve Account — Wyoming’s two primary financial wells for state programs and services.
The largest revision forecasters made to their estimates involved Wyoming’s oil prices. More specifically, CREG reduced the forecasted price-per-barrel by $5, which amounts to a $64 million reduction across all accounts, Co-Chair Don Richards told the Joint Appropriations Committee.
“So it has some impact,” he said.
On the other hand, forecasters increased their estimates for Wyoming’s oil production for calendar year 2026 by 1 million barrels.
“Over the past years, we’ve exhibited strength in oil production. There is certainly enhanced opportunity to expand further,” Richards said. “There are more rigs operating today than just one year ago. So that is just an indication. Certainly, it softens the blow on the lower price.”
Still, forecasters continued to caution lawmakers of the shakiness of Wyoming’s economic picture. While Wyoming’s revenue streams are slowly diversifying, the state has increased its reliance on oil and gas production and its investment portfolio — all of which come with higher volatility than coal.
Oil price volatility, for example, is expected to persist for several reasons, including “geopolitical events, global and domestic economic performance, export volumes, and production levels of multiple domestic and international producers,” according to the report.
“Weather patterns will remain the most influential factor for natural gas demand and prices, which in turn affects coal consumption,” the report states.
Another revision concerned updating the Permanent Wyoming Mineral Trust Fund’s final market value at the end of 2024, which resulted in a slight increase in discretionary funds.
Forecasters also revised estimates for state royalties.
“The coal and oil production on state lands is coming in significantly lower than we forecast in October,” Richards said, adding that the revisions reduced estimates by $21 million for fiscal years 2025 and 2026.
“There’s also some other revenue streams that are very important to the state of Wyoming and are struggling, I will say,” Richards said. “In particular, that is sales and use taxes.”
Asked by WyoFile after the meeting what the report indicates about Wyoming’s financial picture, Sen. Mike Gierau (D-Jackson) offered an analogy.
“We don’t have one foot in the grave, the other on a banana peel, but we can see it from there,” Gierau said.
Gierau, the most senior member of Appropriations, said he’s seen just how much oil prices fluctuate.
“Since I’ve been in [the Legislature], it’s been anywhere from $120 a barrel to minus 40. They couldn’t give oil away,” Gierau said.
With coal in decline, Gierau said, “we’ve got to fund the whole show on a very volatile thing.”
The state is currently operating under the budget lawmakers crafted during the 2024 budget session. This year, it’s up to the Legislature to craft a supplemental budget.
With a new administration in Washington, and their promise to cut federal spending, Wyoming might be on the losing end of future budgets. Wyoming ranks sixth most dependent on the federal government. The Cowboy State comes in behind Alaska, West Virginia, Mississippi, Kentucky, and New Mexico respectively. They also rank Wyoming first in state government’s financial dependency on the federal government and 24th for state residents’ dependency on it. It will be interesting to see how future budgets are impacted.