Share this:

The funding picture for Wyoming’s state government just got a lot rosier.

Driven once again by higher-than-expected mineral revenues, Wyoming enjoyed a more profitable 2023 than financial forecasters predicted, and similar forces are expanding revenue expectations for the next three years.

Nearly all major state revenue streams exceeded January estimates, according to the latest Consensus Revenue Estimating Group report released Wednesday, bringing in $177.3 million more in 2023 than lawmakers planned for when writing the budget.

The same report also adjusted future revenue forecasts upward. Monies flowing into the General Fund and the Budget Reserve Account — the state’s primary accounts used for programs and services — in the next three years are expected to increase by $251.8 million. 

Taken together, the positive balance on 2023’s actual revenues and the newly expanded forecast revenues will give budgeters an additional $429.2 million to work with for the remaining year of the current budget cycle and the 2025-26 plan. 

Each January, representatives from several state offices and the University of Wyoming work together as part of the state’s official estimating process, also known as CREG. The October report acts as a revision with updated information. 

Natural gas prices played a significant role in boosting mineral revenue, particularly due to extreme temperatures that catapulted demand and prices last December and January. 

“[Natural gas prices] were extraordinary,” CREG co-chair Don Richards told the Legislature’s Joint Appropriations Committee on Wednesday. “They were something that has never been seen in the state of Wyoming’s history in terms of those prices, we really generated a lot of revenue.”

Despite the high prices, however, natural gas production was lower than predicted in January. 

Last October, revenue also exceeded 2022 expectations, partly on account of prices that pained residents at the gas pump. 

This and last year’s October CREG reports both took pains, however, to indicate that the newfound bounty should not be expected to continue and that Wyoming’s long-term financial footing remains shaky. 

Monies flowing into the General Fund and the Budget Reserve Account — the state’s primary accounts used for programs and services — in the next three years are expected to increase by $251.8 million. (Consensus Revenue Estimating Group)

Three themes 

“If I had to pick one theme for today’s CREG report, it would be persistent and elevated inflation, and it is evident in multiple areas,” Richards told the committee. “It’s evident in our sales-and-use-tax forecast. It is evident in our investment forecast. It is evident in our non-mineral assessed value — that’s residential property taxes.”

The report also addresses inflation in relation to federal stimulus dollars. Those funds will continue to provide support to Wyoming through fiscal year 2024, but in the meantime are contributing to inflated costs, according to the report. 

Second, while the state’s primary revenue streams appear to have rebounded from 2016’s near-term lows, long-term problems persist.  

“Wyoming coal and natural gas production continues to follow broad downward trends interrupted with occasional increases, which are not sustained,” the report states. “These trends leave the state relying more heavily on oil production and dependent on world prices.” 

Lastly, the report highlights how the state’s commodity dependence can lead to extreme swings. Severance tax collections in 2020, for example, hit a 16-year low then rebounded to the third highest all-time level in 2023. 

“In the past four years, Wyoming has experienced two opposite amplitudes of the proverbial revenue pendulum,” the report states. “External factors, including, but not limited to, geopolitical events, including recent developments in the Middle East, changes in energy markets and demand preferences, weather, available infrastructure and infrastructure outages, world financial markets, pandemics, monetary policy, federal regulations, and federal fiscal policies, continue to dramatically influence fluctuations in Wyoming’s revenue.” 

CREG will provide an update in January ahead of the budget session that begins the following month. For now, Gov. Mark Gordon will use this week’s report to shape his budget recommendations. He’s expected to present those to the Legislature on Nov. 15. 

Maggie Mullen reports on state government and politics. Before joining WyoFile in 2022, she spent five years at Wyoming Public Radio.

Join the Conversation

2 Comments

WyoFile's goal is to provide readers with information and ideas that foster constructive conversations about the issues and opportunities our communities face. One small piece of how we do that is by offering a space below each story for readers to share perspectives, experiences and insights. For this to work, we need your help.

What we're looking for: 

  • Your real name — first and last. 
  • Direct responses to the article. Tell us how your experience relates to the story.
  • The truth. Share factual information that adds context to the reporting.
  • Thoughtful answers to questions raised by the reporting or other commenters.
  • Tips that could advance our reporting on the topic.
  • No more than three comments per story, including replies. 

What we block from our comments section, when we see it:

  • Pseudonyms. WyoFile stands behind everything we publish, and we expect commenters to do the same by using their real name.
  • Comments that are not directly relevant to the article. 
  • Demonstrably false claims, what-about-isms, references to debunked lines of rhetoric, professional political talking points or links to sites trafficking in misinformation.
  • Personal attacks, profanity, discriminatory language or threats.
  • Arguments with other commenters.

Other important things to know: 

  • Appearing in WyoFile’s comments section is a privilege, not a right or entitlement. 
  • We’re a small team and our first priority is reporting. Depending on what’s going on, comments may be moderated 24 to 48 hours from when they’re submitted — or even later. If you comment in the evening or on the weekend, please be patient. We’ll get to it when we’re back in the office.
  • We’re not interested in managing squeaky wheels, and even if we wanted to, we don't have time to address every single commenter’s grievance. 
  • Try as we might, we will make mistakes. We’ll fail to catch aliases, mistakenly allow folks to exceed the comment limit and occasionally miss false statements. If that’s going to upset you, it’s probably best to just stick with our journalism and avoid the comments section.
  • We don’t mediate disputes between commenters. If you have concerns about another commenter, please don’t bring them to us.

The bottom line:

If you repeatedly push the boundaries, make unreasonable demands, get caught lying or generally cause trouble, we will stop approving your comments — maybe forever. Such moderation decisions are not negotiable or subject to explanation. If civil and constructive conversation is not your goal, then our comments section is not for you. 

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

  1. Maybe Wyoming should put this money into a “rainy day fund” or return it to taxpayers. After all, the US will have to stop giving money to states sometime….and Wyoming ranks sixth most dependent on the federal government. The Cowboy State comes in behind Alaska, West Virginia, Mississippi, Kentucky, and New Mexico respectively. They also rank Wyoming first in state government’s financial dependency on the federal government and 24th for state residents’ dependency on it.

    Reply

    1. we already have a massive rainy day fund, that they never dip into. They need to spend it on housing, infrastructure and paying state employees better

      Reply