For years, Wyoming’s economic picture has been precarious, with major fluctuations in employment and productivity. However, we have reassured ourselves with the conventional wisdom that our “boom and bust” economy will soon have better days. Numbers have generally supported this view. Despite the obvious ups and downs, average incomes continued to rise and, at least based on statewide statistics, we had not yet reached a tipping point. Unfortunately, that perspective may be more flawed than we realize.
Opinion
When we evaluate Wyoming’s economy, we often lose sight of its most important component: its people. Wyoming is made up of people, not numbers on a profit-loss statement. High GDP is great, but if that productivity does not increase the well-being of the people doing the work, it is hollow. When we evaluate our economy’s performance, in addition to factors like average productivity and profitability, we should also look at numbers like personal incomes. Are Wyoming’s citizens keeping up with the rest of the nation? Based on the numbers in recent years, it appears we are not.
I recently had a conversation with a friend involved in statistical analysis, specifically in the economic and business sectors. He pointed out that while Wyoming’s per capita income statistics appeared to show healthy growth, they were greatly skewed. The inclusion of Teton County and its many high-income residents in Wyoming’s statewide calculations paints a far rosier picture than truly exists.
It is no surprise that Teton County outpaces the rest of Wyoming when it comes to personal incomes. Teton County is famously among the wealthiest counties in the country, and we all have heard the quips about Jackson’s wealth and the billionaires forcing out the millionaires. What is surprising is how Teton County has sharply differed from the rest of Wyoming in the years since the COVID pandemic. Looking at the 10 most recent years of data included in federal labor statistics, you can get a sense of how things have changed. In the early to mid-2010s, Teton County tended to do better than the rest of Wyoming when it came to income growth, with growth corresponding with the rest of the state. When the rest of the state’s income growth rate changed, Teton County’s tended to as well, and in the same direction.
In 2019, however, we saw the beginning of a sharp divergence. Whereas the rest of Wyoming’s personal income was stagnant and slightly declining, Teton County began to see massive personal income growth. For example, using 2014 as a baseline, Wyoming outside of Teton County saw its average personal income decline by 4.7% by 2019. In contrast, Teton County saw its average personal income grow by 22.7%. Over the next several years, the rest of Wyoming’s income largely stagnated. It was not until 2023 that average personal incomes caught up with 2014 numbers, and even then, they were only 1.9% higher. Teton County, on the other hand, saw its average personal income skyrocket. Comparing 2014 to 2023, Teton County’s average income nearly doubled, increasing by 94.3%.
Due to Wyoming’s small population, this has major impacts on statewide statistics. When looking at statewide numbers, it appears that Wyoming had fairly healthy annual growth, with a 14.4% increase in incomes between 2014 and 2023. What really happened, however, was that Teton County saw incomes shoot up, while the rest of the state stalled.
What does this mean? It means that our state policymakers must understand that things may be worse than they appear on paper. Questions about how we encourage quality, high-paying jobs and economic opportunities are likely more urgent than we think. If Wyoming fails to provide the sort of opportunity that can be found elsewhere, people will leave. It is as simple as that.
Unfortunately, we have already become used to this trend. Wyoming ranks last in retaining its young people, with the highest out-migration rate in the country. Census numbers also show that, despite a statewide population increase of around 3.3% between 2010 and 2020, almost every age demographic saw population losses in Wyoming, except the 65+ demographic, which saw an increase of over 48%. This is troubling, as it shows we are losing our productive-aged population. There is little doubt that the lack of economic opportunities plays a real role.
Our policymakers need to take this issue seriously. This goes beyond hoping that our legacy industries will continue to prop us up. They are an important part of our economy and need to be supported, but they cannot be the only part of our economy. Too often, we let discontent with change stifle progress. Either our economy will change, or we will continue to export our opportunity and our young people to the benefit of other states. I want my children to have the chance to get good paying, quality jobs here in Wyoming. If we do not take this issue seriously, they may not have the chance.
When I moved to Wyoming in 1988 to take a very low paying job as a University professor there were about 400,000 residents. I told a New York friend this and she laughed and said “There are 400,000 panhandlers on my block ” Mm any of my students wanted and tried to stay in the State but realized they were cutting themselves off from opportunity
There’s a lot of benefits living in WY. But what always seems to be the case for me, is putting a career on pause to be a field person and not part of the managerial team. I don’t know how to solve that problem….that’s businesses choosing to have office locations outside of the state. However, I’ve found many of the corporate office staff would enjoy relocating to WY. Plus, sometimes to keep our jobs we have to pack up the family and move.
So my suggestion, look at the industries that operate in WY and entice their regional offices to expand to Casper, Cheyenne, Laramie, maybe Rock Springs.
Also, some of our SW towns are land locked with that fantastic checkerboard sectioning….there’s nothing more powerful than opportunities for land ownership when it comes to people wanting to relocate, think Homestead Act.
I left Wyoming over 50 years ago for the same economic reasons as are present today. However it’s also true that the continuing swerve to the right was and is a factor in why young people leave today as they have done for decades. I am grateful for a great education the state provided at the time but doubt that standard still exists today with the buffoons in the Freedom Caucus thinking there’s no relationship between community health and property taxes. I love Wyoming but until it lives up to its motto as the “Equality State”, I doubt much will change. I think young people would stay if they thought there was more than just the narrow agrarian and mineral basis for economic growth and more open minds about the relationship between political beliefs and the preservation of the “self reliance” myth so common there. After 76 years of living, I can assure you, no one does it alone.
Teton County is to the American Rocky Mountains what Liechtenstein is to the European Alps. The similarity is eerie. L-stein covers only 60 square miles with 40, 000 residents, yet is a tax and wealth haven for billionaires and known for its alpine ski slopes. Paradoxically , both Tetonenstein and Liechtenstein have a working blend of the über rich monarchial class of Old Money overlaid on very active direct democracy in the common folk. Both are exceedingly expensive to visit. The principal difference is Liechtenstein wisely makes it difficult to take up residence and has yet to provide itself an airport. having said all that , in 2006 when the Hell’s Angels motocycle club hbeld its world gathering, Liechtenstein sent representatives from their home chapter. I had a delightful time tipping steins of beer in downtown Cody with them. They had stories. A good fete. One was an umpteenth descendant of the dynastic Hapsburgs. I have yet to imbibe half as well with any pedigreed Jackson Hole scions in spite of living my whole life in the next county. Too snooty.
Owing to its aristocratic laws pertaining to sequestering wealth , taxes, trusts , corporations yada yada, all of Wyoming might as well be a global Cayman Islands money laundering mecca on the Sagebrush Sea these days . Even places like Lusk can be home to oligarchs on paper. But as Khale Lenhart says without stating it, all that hoarded hidden wealth seldom makes it out onto the streets here in Wyomingstein for the residents to partake. It creates no jobs , builds no starter homes.
Therein lies the problem , the reason Wyoming youth run off after reaching legal adulthood. The Cowboy/Equality State caters to the gilded class but really does not look after its own . You cannot pull yourself up by the bootstraps if you aren’t wearing cowboy boots or steel toed work boots to begin with. Duh!
Our lax Legislature and its regressive Freedom Caucus are rapidly creating a failed state for anyone not a One Percenter. Prove me wrong.
Wyoming needs to invest in infrastructure. The state is too big to have so few interstates to move goods around. Without better transportation pathways manufacturing of goods in the state will continue to be cost prohibitive. Without investment in connectivity tech jobs/businesses will find it too difficult to be here.
MT recently announced a major hydrogen deposit that is being tested for production. The Germans have embraced this new technology, but our politicians seem to be bought and paid for by the fossil fuel industry.
Are we going to close our eyes? I believe that we need to do a better job of keeping our eyes on what is coming down the road. Looking back doesn’t show you what opportunities the future holds!
This poses an interesting question: At what point does a state reach collapse? Wyoming is already the lease populated state and with the young moving out and the old moving in there will become a point when the state can no longer function. What happens when that becomes the case? Has there ever been a point in the history of the United States where a state can no longer independently care for itself? Would the federal government have to take over and what would that look like? Outside of duty station for work you can’t force people to move to a state they don’t want. So then would Wyoming have to be carved up and added to the surrounding states? What happens when a state can no longer sustain itself?
Khale, it would be interesting to see what those numbers looked like when you extract out Laramie County as well. Probably not good.
Part of our economic exodus in the state has to do with the lack of willingness of communities to invest in themselves – and in some cases communities that do not want to grow. The community believes the status quo is just fine when in reality a community that does not grow and/or invest in itself is beginning the slow economic death we see in a variety of communities in this state. Whereas those that invest in themselves are easy to recognize.
As an example, Laramie County has chosen to invest in itself through various public and private economic development programs. While economic development will always be a challenge – you “never arrive” – Laramie County is seeing the reward of long term investment in economic infrastructure. While our local governments have become an impediment to that economic growth businesses are still able to find ways to work around government road blocks and barriers.
Some of our exodus has to do with younger people wanting to experience other areas of the US. I was one of those, could not wait to get to a place with warmer weather. While winter is a challenge, I ultimately realized Wyoming is home and where I wanted to be.
Lastly, it is often said that Wyoming is an easy place to do business – frankly we hear that from our government officials all the time. Ask any business person or economic development agency and they will tell you it is challenging. Even with a good economy in Laramie County, with good career opportunities, road blocks for business growth are challenges faced by many. When business owners and developers tell you growth in Laramie County is problematic because of regulatory impediments and government tells you otherwise, there is a significant disconnect. While the economics in Laramie County are good right now, the impediments imposed by government will sooner or later become problematic to that growth – and thus impact these numbers. When a developer or business owner tell you “had I known what the City/County/State was going to make me do I would have never taken on this project” something is not right. And we hear that time and time again in Laramie County.
If we want a better economic future communities need to invest in themselves and government needs to get out of the way – both State and Local.
Obviously, the wealthy are the only people that count in Wyoming and America. What do you expect? They buy our politicians.
Very true. But you’ll never get the “Boot Strap” crowd to understand that. They don’t even get that the phrase itself was meant to denote an impossibility, not be a worthy life or community Mantra.
But I always put it back out there. Please. Anyone who believes in such nonsense, bend over grab your boot straps and start pulling yourself up, we’ll wait for you to realize the truth, it is taking a bit to long for most of you to break free from the dissonance though.
If you talk with the retires that left home any place, when they left there roots and let’s say moved to California. Retiring they now want to seek out openness and quiet and have Infiltrated many areas to escape. If that’s not an economy then what’s is ? The state has something exclusive if they maintain their traditions and emptiness , Just dont sell out to the ones who want to change the charter to everything they moved from to get away from it all. Wyoming has the getaway sowed up as if your a few days away to Denver on a trip you can’t Waite to get back home to Wyoming. Let The young find there dreams and
experiences like most had to but pass a law that dosent let newcomers into local politics with less than a 3 year résidence living in state. Most the remote towns here in AZ people drive 1 to 2 hours to go to work to the area of commerce. Like many in Cheyenne and I suspect in time populations will overtake all special places of quiet.