Wyoming must be thoughtful about its future, as we are in a perilous position. The economic drivers of our state are changing, and cracks are showing in our economic foundation. We must be careful not to make long-term decisions based on a narrow view of our current economic conditions. Our economic future is likely to be very different from our past, and the challenges we’ll face moving forward will be different from what we’ve dealt with before.
Opinion
Wyoming’s economic future is difficult to predict. Our state’s tax structure, revenues, and growth potential are all on shaky ground right now, with outside factors putting our prospects in an especially uncertain state. For example, much of our state revenue comes from oil, gas and coal revenues. We are already aware of the long-term trend in coal production, which appears headed toward a general decline as the overall market shifts to other energy sources. What is not often talked about is the potential for disruption to our oil and gas markets.
Oil is typically the largest income producer of our state’s natural resources. For example, in 2024, severance taxes from oil were over triple what was collected from coal. Natural gas also can provide significant state revenue, but prices are extremely volatile. Years 2022 and 2023 were great for natural gas, but 2024 saw severance tax revenue from natural gas fall to less than half of the previous year, and current projections show prices staying at or below last year’s levels. Both oil and natural gas prices are subject to international market forces. If, for example, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is resolved and Russian oil and gas is allowed back into western markets, there is the potential for both oil and natural gas prices to plummet, which directly harms Wyoming’s economy and state revenues. There is nothing we can do to control or change these factors, but they have the potential to greatly harm Wyoming’s economic output and our ability to fund our state.
The same uncertainty also applies to other industries. We are currently in an extremely volatile economic environment. Tariffs and uncertain regulatory schemes from Washington have shaken confidence in the American economy. Stock prices are the lowest they have been in years and continue to fall with each new announcement from Washington. Wyoming is not immune to the struggles of the national economy, and that economy appears to be headed downward. Do not expect new investment or growth while the current chaos continues.
To top it all off, Wyoming’s demographics are also headed in a direction that indicates coming difficulties. When comparing Wyoming’s demographic changes between the 2010 and 2020 censuses, a trend quickly emerges. Wyoming is trading its youth for retirees.
Between 2010 and 2020, Wyoming lost close to a fifth of its preschool-aged children. During the same period, our 60+ population increased by 36%. In 10 years, we added over 37,500 people over 60 while losing around 24,000 people under 60. That should make every business owner and economic forecaster stop in their tracks because it means that our conventional wisdom about Wyoming youth leaving only to return later is wrong.
Students become young workers who begin building families. Our failure to retain our youth is trickling down into a loss of the next generation of Wyomingites. This will only compound our problems down the road and is a catastrophe for our future outlook. A lack of young workers leads to a lack of mid-career workers, which leads to a lack of senior workers. Wyoming’s economy is staring down a major labor crunch that appears to be just beginning. Loss of economic activity due to the inability to find employees also risks putting our state in a difficult position. You cannot mine coal or drill for oil without employees to do the work.
This paints a gloomy picture, but it is one that we need to have at the front of our minds as we make decisions about our state’s future. We cannot assume that what has worked in the past will work tomorrow, or that we can ignore the realities of our current condition. We have challenges, and some are major. If we ignore them, we are likely to choose a path that puts us in an even worse position than we started in.
The current political climate is destroying our economy. Obsession with avoiding new energy sources will hurt us economically & make us look foolish both nationally & internationally. The push to keep union & well paying jobs out of the state to avoid competing for labor hurts the state. Using political pressure against tenured professors at the states only university is not a good look either. Lack of connectivity hurts economic development & should be adressed agressively. I feel the state should help WY ranchers by promoting local processing & direct to consumer marketing to free ranchers from abuses by large packing companies & middlemen. Lack of investment in the public sector leads to shortages of Troopers, plow drivers, etc. Shutting down rest areas and not spending to pickup interstate trash gives the impression of a drive thru area, not a destination. Agressive F bomb bumper stickers and similar public displays does not scream family friendly small town life. Real estate prices are well above local wages, so even if young people manage to get a good education, are willing to trade city amenities for incredible nature, and don’t feel the political situation is too intolerant the numbers make it a tough sell.
It would be great to see tourism provide more. Small communities are working on improvements and have goals toward promoting what to see and do in the area. Unfortunately wind and solar projects that are going up are huge eye sores ruining any photo op. Who wants to come see that.
Since Wyoming is Number #1 on the list of States that gets most of its dollars from the Federal Government. I now fear we are far beyond a Constitutional Crisis concerning both the Republic and its Democracy, with an imminent threat to the financial stability of that Federal Government. When banks were “too big to fail” in 2007-08, it was the government that took extreme measures to bail them out, measures that significantly contributed to the national debt and made it easier for billionaires and corporations to grab more financial power. Today, I believe they are trying to turn that around and do a hostile takeover of the government by crashing the economy and then presenting their own kind of self-serving bailout. Trump laid the foundation in his first term, by giving huge tax cuts to billionaires and corporations which further increased that debt and their wealth. Now they are deliberately creating a man made crisis in order to deconstruct the administrative state and then privatize everything financially. In effect, they are instituting a corporate coup giving them absolute power through the executive branch. Our Republic will then be under full fledged corporate rule and no longer a Republic, but a Kleptocracy. This is a long held combination of both conservative and liberal capitalistic ideologies called “Accelerationism”, based on the idea that we are bound to fail anyhow, so let’s speed it all up and take advantage of the situation in our favor. We are already seeing this play out in the high rate of speed that has been applied since Trump’s inauguration and I fear it will only get worse.
Wyoming is 600,000 against the world.
By still using the 19th century playbook, the World wins.
I’m a 79y/o. I only passed through Wyoming one time when I was discharged from the Navy. Wyoming is a beautiful state with Yellowstone and other beautiful natural areas. Perhaps tourism can take up some of the slack. Anyway, great article and all the best to Wyomans.
Khale: A well thought out and presented comment.