The far-right media has become very interested in Wyoming politics, but only because it smells blood.
Liz Cheney’s blood, to be precise.
But I’d caution anyone who thinks it’s time to write Cheney’s political obituary that there’s much yet to unfold before the state’s GOP voters go to the polls a year from now.
Can a three-term Wyoming congresswoman who has taken a principled stand against a disgraced former president to uphold American democracy return to the U.S. House?
I don’t see why not. Cheney has money, the support of her party’s traditional establishment and the genes of former Vice President Dick Cheney, who never lost a political race.
Granted, it’s not the scenario faux-news outlets like Breitbart, NewsMax and other Donald Trump allies are predicting. They see Wyoming voters as sheep who will automatically choose Trump’s hand-picked candidate, thereby crushing Cheney.
Let’s test that theory of Trump as the ultimate kingmaker, shall we?
Last week Trump released this statement: “The easiest way to defeat deplorable Liz Cheney is by having only ONE conservative candidate run and WIN! Wyoming patriots will no longer stand for Nancy Pelosi and her new lapdog RINO Liz Cheney.”
No one doubts that Cheney’s vote to impeach Trump, combined with her decision to join the House panel investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection he incited, will cost her some votes.
But both Cheney and Trump captured about 70% of the Wyoming vote in their respective races in 2020. Why does anyone believe her support would completely crater among all Republicans?
Cheney’s fundraising haul of $3.1 million in just the first half of 2021 is her personal best. She has more than five times the cash on hand as all of her competitors combined.
When the Washington Examiner spoke to a dozen Wyoming voters in June for a profile of Cheney’s race, not one could name a single candidate running against her
Based on fundraising and polling, the top three are State Sen. Anthony Bouchard of Cheyenne, State Rep. Chuck Gray of Casper and Cheyenne attorney Darin Smith. Bouchard and Smith are receiving many of their donations from out-of-state contributors who want to see Cheney humiliated, while Gray’s top donor is, well, Gray. The right-wing broadcaster raised $220,000 in the second quarter, but $165,000 came from loans he made to his campaign.
I don’t know how much Gray spent to hire the GOP’s most famously wrong pollster, John McLaughlin and Associates, but he’s getting a lot of mileage from the move. The firm is Trump’s favorite, since it only fed him positive (but inaccurate) projections about his re-election chances.
McLaughlin released a survey last week that sparked outrageous headlines
like this one in the Washington Examiner: “Cheney in trouble: 77% GOP would not reelect, 53% call her ‘liberal.'”
McLaughlin claims Cheney can’t muster more than 23% Republican support in the state if the large field doesn’t dwindle. The firm admits, however, that 23% would be good enough to win her the nomination if none of the challengers drop out. The pollster says in a three-way, Cheney-Gray-Smith contest, the incumbent would lose to Gray by three percentage points.
But it’s in the head-to-head match-ups that Gray supposedly sparkles. McLaughlin has him beating Cheney, 63% to 24%. Smith would also win such a contest, the poll indicates, albeit by a tighter margin.
Notice that this dream scenario for Gray concocted by his pollster conveniently ignores an important factor? What happened to Bouchard?
Well, the Examiner justifies dropping the current challenger fundraising leader with this assessment: “Bouchard is said to be out of the running for a Trump endorsement since he admitted to sex with a 14-year-old girl when he was 18.”
That fits the extreme right’s narrative: Bouchard can’t win because Trump is going to bestow his blessing on Gray, and everyone else must fade into the sunset. Smith has reportedly said if he isn’t Trump’s chosen one, he’ll gracefully bow out.
Hold on a minute. I’m pretty sure Bouchard isn’t going anywhere, even if Trump listens to state pols who don’t particularly like the upstart state senator and former director of Wyoming Gun Owners.
And since when has a sex scandal kept Trump — who has survived many — from endorsing a candidate? Does the name Roy Moore ring a bell? Trump threw his considerable weight behind Moore in the 2017 special U.S. Senate race in Alabama, even though the former judge had a reputation as a pedophile and had been publicly accused of sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl.
Moore lost that race in a state that hadn’t elected a Democratic U.S. senator in a quarter-century. Thanks, Donald!
As Bouchard noted early on after the story of his teen relationship broke, he married the 14-year-old he impregnated. He’s hoping the GOP base will see it as a plus and ignore the sex-with-a-minor admission.
“It’s almost 40 years ago,” Bouchard told the Examiner. He said Wyoming voters “have their mind [on] issues that are happening today.”
Does that sound like a man who will drop out of a contest in which he’s attacked Cheney like a pit bull that hasn’t been fed for a week?
I don’t think so. I also don’t believe Trump is going to hand Gray or any candidate a victory. And while the Wyoming race will continue to garner a lot of his attention, I don’t think Trump will get his revenge and oust Cheney.
Many on the far-right are surely quaking in their boots about what the House committee probing the Jan. 6 Capitol crimes will find. Cheney, as one of only two Republicans on the panel, will have her own bully pulpit from which to castigate her tormentor-in-chief for siccing the mob on the People’s House.
“If those responsible are not held accountable and if Congress does not act responsibly,” she noted in her opening remarks, “this will remain a cancer on our constitutional republic, undermining the peaceful transfer of power at the heart of our democratic system.
“We must also know what happened every minute of that day in the White House — every phone call, every conversation, every meeting leading up to, during and after the attack,” Cheney added. “Honorable men and women have an obligation to step forward.”
Support informed commentary. Donate today.
Many Wyoming Republicans will pay attention as the committee pursues the truth, and some will likely conclude that Cheney’s impeachment vote was right all along.
I’d sure hate to throw a monkey wrench into these wacky proceedings, but I wonder if someone should tell Trump that Gray is spending his own money on this campaign.
Everyone knows Trump shook down the special interests to pay for his presidential ambitions — despite pledges to self-fund his campaign — and I trust he’d brand any candidate who bankrolls their own run a “loser.”
So how could he endorse a loser? Well, Trump did it in last week’s U.S. House special election in Texas, in which his chosen candidate lost the GOP primary by six percentage points.
But if you ask him, no one really loses if they have Trump in their corner.
“This is the only race we’ve … this is not a loss, again, I don’t want to claim it is a loss; this was a win,” Trump said after the loss. “The big thing is, we had two very good people running that were both Republicans. That was the win.”
Gray isn’t a lock for Trump’s endorsement. But if he gets it, I hope it’s a comfort for the candidate that even if he spends his own dough but loses his party’s nomination, the guy who hand-picked him will still declare victory. Or maybe, when Cheney embarrasses him once again, he’ll just claim the election was stolen.
I just have to say that this is the most one-sided article I’ve ever seen by a local paper. It’s nothing but absolute shilling for Liz Cheney, who’s so popular she lost the right to be called “Representative” in her own state! I expected more common sense from a Wyoming paper.
@Greg Hunter
“I agree they (polls) are falling but . . .”
Do you even realize your own contradictions and bias? The lady provided what was asked, and you can only resort to a condescending attack on her intelligence?? The current regime does not respect or follow the Constitution. You earned that “F” all on your own, don’t blame her.
UPDATE with some totally unsurprising nonshocking news. My very own Park County Republican Party totally disavowed Liz Cheney on Thursday , Aug 5. They issued a press release on social networks ( I know, I know, but that’s how it’s done these days, unless you are Donald Trump and have been blackballed ). The metaphorical longsleeved brownshirts with the black jackboots Park County Republican Party sent a letter to U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney this week telling her they no longer recognize her as their legitimate representative.
(Quote)
“After careful consideration of previous resolutions, our county censure of January 7th, 2021, and the State Central Committee censure of February 6th, 2021, and numerous outcries from Wyoming citizens, Park County Republican Precinct Committee will no longer recognize you as the legitimate Republican United States Representative for Park County Republicans,” said the letter, which was was shared to social media on Thursday night.
Imagine that . Our sole reprsentative in Washington who is conservative to the bone marrow, who votes conservative 99.5 percent of the time and whom in fact voted with Trump at least 85 percent of the time , is no longer conservative enough or considered qualified to represent the Park County Republican apparatchiks.
Note I did not say Park County Republicans, as in real workaday people and real voters. No , it’s just these few guys and a couple gals hailing from Cody, Clark, Wapiti, and maybe irrigated cropland between Cody and Powell, up in the wheelhouse of the garbage barge that was once the proud GOP liberty ship ” USS Park County “. The went all mutiny and usurped the party.
It really has gotten that bad, that desperate for the Wyoming GOP. If Liz Cheney isn’t good enough for them , then by all means set sail for that mirage on the far right horizon , shimmering with delusion. There are few if any real Republicans left in Wyoming these days, and no definition of Conservative we can come anywhere close to agreeing on.
Woodrow Wilson won the presidential election of 1912 with less than 50% of voter support. Liz Cheney can win the 2022 Wyoming election the same way Woodrow did. By splitting the vote among multiple candidates. Teddy Roosevelt split the Republicans allowing Democrat Wilson to win and thus sign off on income tax and the Federal Reserve. The New World Order Globalists will endeavor to run many Wyoming Republican candidates.
Liz Cheney has her own reasons for voting to impeach and for being on the House committee. I’m very grateful that she has found a way to speak out that helps us all. I won’t vote for her in the primary because she is much too effective as an ultraconservative. I plan to vote for the dumbest, least effective republican I can. After all, the winner of that primary is our next representative. We can be proud of Liz, but we don’t have to put her back in office to prove it. Let’s just send a thank you card.
Great analysis, Kerry. But I was hoping to read about one key variable that only strengthens your thesis that Cheney will emerge victorious in the primary: the number of Democrats and Independents who will register Republican in next year’s primary to vote for Cheney, not as an endorsement of her conservative voting record, but as an appreciation of her allegiance to the Constitution and the truth. (Even if her dad was manipulating the puppet strings, Liz’s actions and statements still required a ton of resolve and fortitude.)
My wish is that Trump would stay out of our Wyoming business.
So far, Mr. Trump’s various endorsements in special elections and primaries around the country have gone thuddingly flat. Even in deep red Trumpian strongholds like Alabama and Texas, Another Orange-Blue litmus test is coming up in Ohio fairly soon.
I believe Trump has the Reverse Midas Touch. Everything he touches eventually turns to… uh, Crud. It will only get worse for Trumpism between now and next year’s primaries and offyear ballots , contrary to what you may have heard. Personally , I hope His Royal Orangeness will watch the November 2022 election results from the Metropolitan Correctional Center in midtown Manhattan. By whence any endorsement from him will be worthless or detrimental to the endorsee. Expect to hear the distant squealing of many lemmings…
The good news is Liz Cheney will do fine next year, regardless. The bad news is Liz Cheney will do fine next year , regrettably.
Excellent analysis here by Mr. Drake. The reminder of Donald Trump’s support for Alabama’s leading pedophile is a good reminder of the character of the disgraced president.
I don’t admire Congresswoman Cheney’s cultural and environmental politics, but I do appreciate her sticking up for law and order and the U.S. Constitution.
I look forward to her debates with Gray and Bouchard. She is an experienced, bright, knowledgeable politician with talent that will contrast considerably with the Trump-loving Gray and Bouchard.
Communist propaganda.
Disappointing.
The Culture War rages on.
Communist propaganda? Tell me you’re delusional without saying you’re delusional……
Chrump wanted to silence the media that wasn’t favorable to him.
Chrump put pressure on the DOJ to claim the election was full of fraud (it wasn’t, and still isn’t)
Chrump thought he should be able to serve more than 2 terms. Directly in opposition to the constitution that you chrump worshippers claim to care so much about. Luckily, he didn’t even get to the 2nd.
Chrump wanted to weaponize the military/police to squash protests. Going so far as to use the police to clear out peaceful protesters for his photo op in front of the church.
Chrump used the DOJ to gather information on his detractors.
Chrump used his office for the benefit of his family, friends, and personal interests.
Chrump was the first “president” that didn’t commit to a peaceful transition of power after he LOST. In fact, he instigated a riot/insurrection with all his smooth-brained followers.
There are dozens of others that I could list. But honest and rational folks already know and can see who has the communist tendencies.
Well said. You summarized all that blathering in 8 succinct, effective, and accurate words.
I trust Wyoming voters understand that Liz Cheney is EXTREMELY conservative, just like they are. 91 percent of the time her votes were the same as Mo Brooks’, the rep from Alabama, the state that Wyoming most resembles politically, it seems, and when their votes differed the issues were about congressional procedures So she didn’t think Trump won the election, (and Biden is sending Wyoming a ton of dough) or that it was okay for people to break into the Capitol hoping to zip tie
Nancy Pelosi and hang Mike Pence? Bad girl! ,But since Wyomingites know or should know what sides their Conservative bread is buttered on, and Trump will not win again, and they’ll never vote for a Democrat,they should vote for her.
We’ll see, Mr. Drake, we’ll see, shall we?