When Jonathan Schechter came to Jackson Hole as a young university graduate in 1983, one of the mountain community’s leading activists gave him a valuable insight.

“The only Wyoming election that matters is the Republican primary,” Bob Morris told him. Morris, a colorful former U.S. Marine, FM radio station owner and environmentalist affectionately known by locals as “Captain Bob,” died in 2020 at age 87.

But Schechter, 65, a policy analyst and think-tank founder who serves on the Jackson Town Council, took his mentor’s words to heart. 

“His [Morris’] logic was that, almost invariably, whoever wins Wyoming’s statewide Republican primaries wins November’s general elections,” Schechter wrote in a recent campaign newsletter. “Decades later, that observation generally remains true, and it’s certainly the case this year.”

With that in mind, Schechter, a numbers wizard with degrees from Stanford and Yale, decided to examine the Wyoming GOP primary to see if incumbent U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney might be able to beat Donald Trump-endorsed candidate Harriet Hageman for the state’s sole congressional seat.

Jonathan Schechter, an economist and policy analyst, also serves on the Jackson Town Council (Courtesy/Jackson Town Council)

For 20 years, Schechter honed his policy and political analysis skills as bi-weekly columnist for the Jackson Hole News&Guide. His unusual column, named “Corpus Callosum” after the bundle of fibers that connect the two hemispheres of the brain, examined a wide range of issues and policies, usually through a statistical lens.

So far, the early polls say Hageman will win by a wide margin in a state that gave Trump his most lopsided win in the 2020 election. But political polls have been unreliable, failing to predict Trump’s 2016 victory and, more recently, grossly underestimating Kansans’ support for their state’s constitutional right to abortion.

With the Cheney-Hageman polls in mind, Schechter decided to dive into Wyoming state and county voting statistics and crunch the numbers himself. Based on the polling and other political sources, he determined that Cheney would need to find an additional 30,000 votes beyond her core GOP support to retain her seat. 

The conclusion of his detailed analysis is that recently the momentum in voter-registration patterns has shifted in Cheney’s favor. If significant crossover Democrat-to-Republican voting occurs at polling places in the Aug. 16 primary, he wrote, Cheney could reach that 30,000 number. 

Even if Cheney is not victorious, Schechter said, “the data on voter registration patterns suggest that the race is going to be far closer than conventional wisdom suggests.” 

The data

Some of the trends Schechter identified — such as unprecedented new voter numbers and changes in party registration — have been corroborated by Wyoming Secretary of State records and in WyoFile interviews with a handful of county election officials across the state.

“You usually know who is changing their registration to vote for Cheney in the primary,” said Fremont County Clerk Julie Freese, “because they tell you so and then immediately ask when they can change back.”

These questions do not necessarily please the election clerks, Freese said, because they are the ones who must do the paperwork on the crossover changes. But neither do allegations by some Trump supporters, including “Pillow Man” Mike Lindell, that Wyoming elections have been compromised.

“He blamed Dominion voting machines and Wyoming doesn’t even use them,” Freese said.

Jackson numbers guru Jonathan Schechter crunched polling and election data to analyze incumbent U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney’s odds for retaining her seat. (Courtesy Jonathan Schechter)

Although it does not necessarily indicate a trend toward either Cheney or Hageman, Laramie County Clerk Debra Lee described the increased volume of early and absentee voting compared to 2018 (the year of the contested GOP gubernatorial primary featuring candidates Mark Gordon, Foster Friess and Hageman) as “striking.”  If nothing else, this shows intense interest in the nationally spotlighted Wyoming congressional race.

In 2018, Lee reported, a total of 3,663 persons in her county had voted early or absentee at this point in the election cycle. In 2022, she said, the number has almost doubled to 6,438.

“We’ve seen a steady flow of voters at our early voting site yesterday [Aug. 4] and today [Aug. 5], topping 400,” she said.

In Wyoming, the window for absentee and in-person voting opened July 1. Registration and change in party affiliation are allowed up to and including primary election day, Aug. 16.

The breakdown

In his research, titled “Can Liz Cheney Win?”, Schechter examined five categories of voters that could benefit her and possibly make up the 30,000-vote deficit:

  1. Crossovers who have already voted. These are non-Republicans who changed their registration to vote as Republicans and who have voted since July 1.
  2. New voters who voted in July.
  3. New voters registering in August (both before and on election day).
  4. Undecideds.
  5. Last-minute crossovers (who change registration between Aug. 1-15 and at the polling place on Election Day).

Schechter noted that early voters registered as Democrat or unaffiliated dropped by an unprecedented 7,644. Schechter puts each of those voters in the “crossovers who’ve already voted” category and counts each of their votes in the Cheney column.

By Aug. 1, meanwhile, there were 11,495 more registered Republicans in the state than there were on Jan. 1. Subtracting the 7,644 crossover registrants left close to 4,000 new Republican voters in the state. Schechter speculates that 75% of these new Republicans voted for Cheney, adding 1,908 to her total. Schechter based his estimate on reaction to Cheney’s leading role in the Jan. 6 hearings and her massive campaign advertising. 

Jackson numbers guru Jonathan Schechter crunched polling and election data to analyze incumbent U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney’s odds for retaining her seat. (Courtesy Jonathan Schechter)

Cheney still had $7 million left in her campaign funds two weeks before the Aug. 16 primary. Earlier this month, she released arguably her most persuasive campaign ad yet, in which her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney looks directly into the camera and calls Donald Trump a “coward” and not a “real man.”

Ignoring Harriet Hageman, Cheney directs his scorn directly at Hageman’s patron:

Jackson numbers guru Jonathan Schechter crunched polling and election data to analyze incumbent U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney’s odds for retaining her seat. (Courtesy Jonathan Schechter)

“In our nation’s 246-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump,” he says. 

More than 6 million people have viewed it online, according to Newsweek.

Historically, Schechter said, about the same number of new voters register in August and on Election Day as do in the preceding seven months. If that trend holds true, Schechter estimates that category 3 could add another 1,908 votes to Cheney’s total.

Recent polls suggest that 10% of Wyoming voters — representing about 12,000 votes — remain undecided. If 75% percent of these voters were to go to Cheney, as Schechter speculates, it would add 6,000 votes to her total.

The potential votes from the first four categories Schechter listed only add up to 17,640 votes, about 60% of the 30,000 she is seeking. 

“So how to make up the remaining 40%?” Schechter writes. “The real X factor is how many more people will crossover in the last two weeks leading up to the election, and then on election day itself (Category 5). If Wyoming’s experience is anything like Teton County’s — and the general patterns suggest at least some similarity — roughly 75% of any primary’s crossing over will occur in the final two weeks before the election. Critically, this figure does not include the number of people who cross over on election day itself.”

Schechter concludes:

“As of August 1, there had been a 9.4% drop in Wyoming’s total number of Democrats and Unaffliliateds. If that figure even doubles in the final two weeks, and then gets another boost on election day — both of which are historically possible — then Ms. Cheney has a fighting chance of winning.” 

Schechter’s most detailed information comes from Teton County, historically a political outlier in the state. In the 2020 presidential election, for example, Teton and Albany counties were the only two of 23 to favor Biden.

But he also reported that for this election at least, the rest of the state appears to be experiencing a similar drop in voters registered as Democrats or as unaffiliated.

“Statewide, there was a 9.4% drop in overall Democrat and Unaffiliated registrations,” Schechter reported. “And while Teton County’s 11.3% drop was higher than the statewide average, it was below Park County’s 13.6%, and barely higher than the rates in several other counties.”

“I didn’t come into this thing as an anti-Hageman zealot,” he said, “but the deeper I got into it the more I could see that Teton County was not an anomaly and that there was a possible path for Liz Cheney.”

Rone Tempest

Rone Tempest was a longtime national and foreign correspondent for the Los Angeles Times. In 2004 he was part of a team of reporters to win the Pulitzer Prize for coverage of the massive wildfires in Southern...

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  1. Liz may have valuable assets and perspective to restore the Republican Party that all others seem to lack! It will be an exciting cultural shift she proposes to restore national values, a white horse of victory the Conservative realists need to reform their vision of values lost.

  2. With 75% of votes counted Hageman is going to win in a landslide.
    1. With less than 5% of the total votes being cast in the democratic primary, there were either many crossover, dems who were disinterested leading speculation that voters’ anger was much more pervasive than thought.
    2. Even though outspending her opponent, name recognition by her father, and her prominence in the Jan 6 hearings, she still couldn’t be competitive.
    3. Do not underestimate the wrath of an electorate whose representative ignores your vote and your wishes, thumbs your nose at your politics and “votes her conscience”
    4. cheney’s political career is over. She will return to Washington, get a standing ovation from the dems, who blatantly used her, and after January will ignore her. Expect her to go to work on “the view”, cnn, or msnbc as the token republican who will say whatever nonsense maddow or stelter or whoopi want her to.

  3. I really think that Cheney will lose big. She should change her party affiliation to democrat. The socialists are using her and she doesn’t realize it. Does she honestly believe we are better off with the leaders of our country now than we were just18 months ago. How would her father have liked it if the same was done to her father and bush? Ah then republicans have to stick together. O well let’s go Brandon. I can’t wait

  4. Benedict Arnold would have learned a thing or two from Elizabeth. One can only hope sanity prevails in this primary.

  5. Rone Tempest, in your August 9, 2022 piece promoting the work of Jonathan Schechter, economist and political analyst, who also serves on the Jackson (WY) Town Council, along with the chances of Liz Cheney winning the Wyoming August 16 primary, I think your 7th paragraph is the most telling: “So far, the early polls say (Harriet) Hageman will win by a wide margin in a state tht gave Trump his most lopsided win in the 2020 election. But political polls have been unreliable, failing to predict Trump’s 2016 victory and, more recently, GROSSLY UNDERESTIMATING KANSANS’ SUPPORT FOR THEIR STATE’S CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT TO ABORTION.” (caps mine).

  6. I have always been a die hard Democrat and have rarely ever voted for a Republican. Born and raised in Wyoming, currently living in Colorado.
    Some of the comments suggest that a Wyo. Congress person only represents Wyo, they also represent the USA. I belive Liz Cheney meets that standard.
    Every Democrat that believes as I do should change there party affiliation for a day to help this person save America.

  7. It is telling that the comments supporting Cheney are from non-Wyoming residents.
    They do not mention their party affiliation or who currently represents them. Rather we get platitudes such as this, “one of those rarified politicians to put her country above her party”. I would ask if this commenter feels the same way on Cheney’s pro-life, anti-abortion stance?
    Lest we forget, a WY Representative is elected to represent the State of Wyoming.

  8. Trusting politicians can be so difficult… Always hard to tell if they want to help the nation/community or just themselves. I believe in non-partisan swing voting snd here’s why… If a politician can’t trust you to vote for them a second time, … well maybe they’ll work harder at doing the right thing FOR EVERYBODY the first time! Leadership is about a person’s character, their ability to listen, discern and use good judgement to produce sound policy for US! Liz Cheney is truly one of those rarefied politicians who has the character to put her country above her party and HERSELF and I sincerely hope you do not vote her out of office for it. I hold Wyoming in high regard for its level headed conservatism. I will be disappointed indeed to lose such a fine public servant in exchange for a new person educated on bias and misinformation. Eventually when the dust settles and you finally snap awake, you will find that what Dick Cheney said about Trump is 100% true. So don’t be intentionally ignorant, Google Trump’s legal scapes and poor character like I have… perhaps find out it’s time to care about the future of this great nation more than one badly flawed man! … Because as you know… not all politicians can be trusted, but luckily Liz Cheney has ALREADY proved that she absolutely can be. I’m behind her all the way and I hope you are too.

  9. Just keep telling yourself Lizzie has a path to victory while she happily continues to spit in our eye.

    1. LIZ CHENEY is NOT “spitting in the eye” of the citizens of your amazing, beautiful state of Wyoming. Liz CHENEY REPRESENTS the best interests of you ALL as a woman of CHARACTER in her HONESTY and by COURAGEOUSLY ADHERING to rhe IRREFUTABLE FACTS and the rule of American law.
      I DO NOT AGREE with her politics … but may I recommend to you that you ALWAYS VOTE for the MOST QUALIFIED PERSON of CHARACTER to work for you and your fellow citizens in Wyoming. Elections are NOT popularity contests; they exist as our precious voice to choose the best, lawful American to represent, protect and advance the people of Wyoming and your fellow Americans. We ALL count on the good judgment of the Wyoming voters.
      If Trump’s policies are sound, they will survive. If not … as with some preceding policies of other past presidents … they will not survive. (Thank goodness prohibition was reversed !) CHENEY RUNS AS YOUR BEST VOTE! God bless Wyoming!

  10. Interesting debate. Problem with cheney is she has thrown in with pelosi, schifty, and the east coast libs in not just voting her conscience but destroying Trump and many of the positive policies he initiated. Her opinions are not different than romney, amash and the others who voted to impeach. They aren’t the ones making this Jan. 6 debacle bipartisan, only cheney. So unfortunately your vote for her is a vote for biden, pelosi, schumer and the squad. Remember, when trump left office we had gas under $2.00/gallon, the southern border was secure, we had 2% inflation, crime was being controlled, the economy, including schools were being encouraged to open after covid, and a recession was not in our immediate future.

    1. I respectfully disagree Ray. Maybe what’s caught you off guard is that she’s not playing politics at all right now. She’s keeping her sworn oath to uphold the Constitution and make sure that the peaceful transfer of power will continue for another 246 years. It’s Americans like Liz that make our nation great. An unflinching, hardcore, in your face conservative, who is still willing to do the right thing at the right time no matter what it costs her personally. She is an American that I will admire forever. Bless you Wyoming for producing such a patriot. When the heat of the moment fades and you’re more amenable to the actual facts, you just might be embarrassed that you ever let Trump mislead
      and misinform you without putting up a fight yourself.

      1. And Denise I respectfully disagree with you. Please tell me what facts I misrepresented. Did cheney not throw in with schift, pelosi and other Trump haters? Was gasoline not $2.00/gallon at the time of regime transition? Was the border not more secure 19 months ago? Is there a difference in the inflation, recession, etc? Crime is worse. Trump tried to open the economy and schools after covid and the dems have not. What you are stating are opinions not facts. Yours are no more valid than mine.

  11. Dewey nailed it on the head. I too will be voting “WITH” Liz Cheney this time. Not for…..Not against….. but “WITH” conviction. Good Luck Liz! Thank you for your service to Wyoming and to this country. I am looking forward to having many, many fruitful disagreements “WITH” you in the future.

  12. You should have looked at the data a bit more honestly. Luz will lose her job. Aren’t enough democrats to switch and many of them hate her, always have.

  13. Liz is a RINO carpetbagging Neo Con. I have lived in Wyoming since 2009. I supported Trump in 2016 and 2020 and will support Hageman in this election.

    1. Lots of name calling. I, for one, support Liz Cheney. She is standing up for the truth, in spite of all the political pressure. I truly hope she finds a pathway to victory on Tuesday.

    2. I, for one, support Liz Cheney. She is standing up for the truth, in spite of all the political pressure. I truly hope she finds a pathway to victory on Tuesday.

  14. If Harriet Hageman gets elected to Congress she will fit right in with Marjorie Taylor-Green. They will probably lunch together.

  15. I thought Wyoming voters might like to know that the Colorado Sun just reported that Colorado Republicans as well as some Democrats are contributing to both Harriet’ and Liz’– with much more money going to Cheney.

  16. Let’s come back to this column next week after Liz loses by 30 points. The media needs to stop pushing disinformation like this guy. Liz is only popular with democrats, period.

  17. Seeing this several times from cult members on this page, I’m still trying to figure out which policies and platform from the former administration were good for all Americans.
    The horrendous response to global health crisis, increasing the national debt at a higher rate than anyone before him, installing wholly unqualified justices to the Supreme Court, and overall complete disregard for the rule of law (that up until this week conservatives seemed to unquestionably support) both in office and now as an Ex.
    Liz Cheney was partially responsible for this travesty of a presidency, but thankfully she is trying to right a wrong that is going to be a stain on this country for a long long time.

    1. Some politicians are like fields of wheat, they bend to whichever the wind is blowing. Take for example Mike Enzi. His shtick was the national debt. He did however vote to increase the national debt under Trump’s, give the billionaires and large corporations, tax reduction plan.

    2. Mr. Tucker. No wars started under his admin. Inherited a mess from Obama/Bush that cost Trillions. There was very strong economy and record employment. With REAL WAGE GROWTH. We had plenty of Energy. Both Electrical and Gas. Gasoline/Diesel supplies—at economical prices. No supply chain issues. Could walk in to Car dealer take your pick and drive away in new vehicle. Inflation under control. Taxes were dropping. Crime under control. Border was secure and getting better. Drug OD were dropping—because of secure borders were reducing drug smuggling. Trump eliminated Iranian General Salami who had murdered man American citizens. He had Iran on their knees ready to cave in. China was falling in line. Russia was under control and would not if moved on ukraine if Trump still in WH. Yes you are such a blind fool to make a remark like you did. Now then I am not a Trump Cult member. Was he right all the time? NO. But give man credit for some things. Done all that and more while whole time fighting Democrats and GOP in many cases. What has Chaney actually done in her years in Congress? Nothing! You also know she and Husband benifit financially from his firm working with China? You know that correct? Such idiot talk from you and your ilk. Last thing. We had strong military. Not a woke one who couldn’t whip a troop of Brownies. All of the above is what we HAD! Democrats are absolutely Pi@&ing all over them selfs he will run in 24. But Hunter/Joe likely enjoy that act.

      1. A cursory check of FBI statistics indicate that rate of violent crimes was higher in 2020 than in 2017.
        The CDC’s figures indicate that drug overdose deaths increased from 2017 to 2020.
        I’ll grant you a small win on the tax issue, but the permanent tax cuts given to ultra-wealthy, banks, and corporations strip away any real benefit to the general public.
        Our strong military (under Biden) just took out Al-Queda’s leader, just as Obama did in 2011.
        Trump would have let Putin waltz into Ukraine.
        And regarding the supply chain … which is it? Is Joe senile and sleepy, or do you think he has the power to control the GLOBAL economy?

    3. I like it J Tucker, an informed analysis. There’s nothing wrong with making a mistake as long as you got the guts to set it to right. It’s taking a whole lot of guts for Liz to set this one right. It’s distressing to see how many people don’t seem to care about right besting wrong or good vs. bad. They dismiss actual facts in exchange for alternative facts.

  18. Democrat Representatives, Malinowski (D-NJ) and Phillips (D-MN) have issued ads asking democrats to “temporarily” change their party affiliation to Republican in order to vote for Cheney.
    If a residency requirement is necessary to purchase a hunting license (ask Cheney about that) an appropriate time period of party registration should be required to vote in a party primary. Exceptions can be made for WY residents who are first time voters, e.g. teens registering for the first time.

  19. With the orange-man Trump, you have the Big Lie……with Hageman, you have the Big Siphon. Caught red handed trying to clandestinely help Aaron Million divert gazillions of gallons of Wyoming water to the Colorado front range. The evidence is in black and white yet Hageman vehemently denies it. The modern Wyo GOP apparently loves liars. But – liars eventually turn on themselves. I predict that a majority of common sense (but quiet) Wyomingites will see right through the cult follower Hageman and on Aug. 16th, punch Liz Cheney’s ticket back to DC. YOU READ IT HERE FIRST!

    1. Gotta love the irony in the Hageman ad stating folks in Wyoming don’t appreciate liars. But she flies the flag “Trump-Endorsed”and won’t admit Trump’s claim of the 2020 election being stolen is a lie. Too funny!

    2. Oops! Looks who’s lying now. Hageman did NOT support water going to Colorado. That is why the ads have stopped.

  20. Goodbye you un-American, small time internet source. How many comments, here? Certainly a small click of followers. OUCH

    OUCH

  21. A deep red state like Wyoming should have stopped me from wasting, however clear and intelligent those two comments were, my time from posting here. No two sides, unless they are denigrating Liz Cheney or mild mannered in their support of her, are allowed. True colors.

  22. “My comment is awaiting moderation”, really?? No two sides voiced here. How un-American Wyofile! Delete away.

  23. Oh Wyofile! You deleted my comment which demonstrates that Free Speech in not alive and well in Wyoming. I’ll keep this one shorter. Liz Cheney is a true PATRIOT and no Rino.It is Donald Trump’s who is the Rino. If Wyomingites researched his political affiliations, they would find that he has flip-flopped between Democrats and Republicans, even the Reform party, throughout his voting history. He is the Great Opportunist, only to benefit himself and his inner circle of wealth. Go ahead Wyoming and vote your bank accounts and investment portfolios. Otherwise vote with integrity, ie, Liz Cheney.

  24. The author’s presumptions regarding the switch in party affiliation from independent and democrat to republican are comically ignorant. Switching party affiliation just to meddle in the opposition primary is very rare. These voters are switching parties because they are fed up with the disastrous last year and a half under this administration. This trend is occurring in my home state of Florida, which will be bright red in November. Virtually none of these party switchers will vote for Liz Cheney. She will lose by between 25 and 35 percentage points.

  25. I believe that the good people of Wyoming cherish this country and respect its laws and Constitution. Exactly what Liz Cheney feels and acts upon. How many people have relocated to your state in it’s history of statehood? Did any serve in your state government or at the Federal level? If so, then don’t be hypocritical about Liz and her fighting for the best for Wyoming. This lady is a true Patriot and Republican. Has she displayed gross, unethical behavior when working as a US Representative
    for Wyoming?? NO. Anyone chosen by a man who lied to the American public over and over again is a reflection of that liar. Please don’t vote for the traitor’s choice because you’ve been hoodwinked and beguiled by this mobster. Vote for a genuine lover of our nation and it’s greatness. Please do the right thing and vote Cheney.

  26. Well researched, well presented, well done article indeed. Validates trends that before were just speculatory street and trail sense.
    Still believe strongly that Wyomingites will make this a toss-up.

  27. Only if the 87,000 new IRS agents are allowed to vote will the vote even resemble
    a race. Old man Cheney cowardly did his daughter a real disservice with his comic
    tv spot. Harriet in a landslide because there are more proud American citizens than there are Jackson residents. Just sayin’………..

    1. I can’t wait to hear all the tRumpers whining when Harriet gets elected and does nothing for the state of Wyoming. You all seem to forget that not so long ago she was against tRump and she is only using his endorsement to get elected in a position she has no business being in. I am again to going to go out on a ledge and guess you voted for Cheney until she called out your boy.

  28. The Trumpsters will certainly be ever-more energized by the FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago today. I wish Ms. Cheney all the luck in the world–but still believe her chances are slim and none–and none has left the building.

  29. I read an article recently about Trump’s plans for an Independence Day Parade in 2017. According to witnesses, when Trump told General Kelly, Secretary of Defense at the time, about his vision, he insisted there be no wounded guys in the parade. He told Kelly and the other brass how a Bastille Day parade in France included several formations of injured veterans. Some of those veterans were wheelchair-bound soldiers who had lost limbs in battle. Trump thought it was distasteful. General Kelly tried to explain that wounded veterans are the heroes to Americans, and no one is more heroic, except soldiers buried in Arlington Cemetery. Trump retorted, I don’t want them, it doesn’t look good for me.

    The Cheney’s definitely have their flaws, but voting for Liz seems like a no-brainer, regardless of party affiliation

    1. I agree 100%. I disagreed with everything Dick Cheney did and I don’t agree with Liz Cheney’s political views; however I have great respect for her. She truly stands up for our country. She takes her oath to the constitution seriously and doesn’t believe that you take an oath to the President! When you take an oath to a President then we become either an autocratic society or a dictatorship. Our democracy is under attack and people need to wake up! The TRUTH has to MATTER AGAIN! LIZ STANDS UP FOR THE TRUTH AND THAT MATTERS! SHE HAS THE COURAGE TO STAND UP FOR OUR DEMOCRACY WHEN MANY MEN OUR TRYING TO DESTROY IT JUST TO BE CLOSE TO TRUMP FOR POWER! Absolute power corrupts absolutely! VOTE FOR LIZ, she deserves your vote, democrat from Missouri

      1. I am a true Patriot and believe so much in the oath of Congressional,Judicial and Presidential officers take to preserve Our Constitution. We could be a GREAT Nation if we preserve the rights of ALL Americans to go to Voting Booth to vote.The Electoral College needs to be Eliminated NOW,why do We(Americans)still have this outdated institution?These draconian laws are not needed in America, no other Country in the World uses this Scheme except the Republicans, this Institution is so outdated and just another Way to STEAL ELECTIONS from American Voters…POPULAR CANDIDATES should Win,PERIOD.SO SAY THE PEOPLE….

        1. Draconian law? The electoral college is one of the FEW tools in place to keep smaller states from being over-run ad dictated to by the big states where all of the liberals live and think alike, as shown in your post. It is the last vestige of hope for smaller states to have a voice, and even with it we are being over-run with scary socialist policies.

  30. Is Cheney going to be of benefit to Wyoming? Should she be elected, she is not part of the Congressional Republican Caucus, denounced by the state Republican part, will she then cauc
    us with the democrats? With the Republican take over of the House she will be on the outside looking in. Her election will not benefit WY. We have only one representative and that position should not be wasted.
    I ask of those democrats registering as Republicans, will you vote for Cheney, should she win the primary, or go back to the democrat candidate in November?

    1. How can you even say that. Do you know her voting record? You must not! She has something like a 98 or 99% conservative rating. She voted with Trump all the time. She just would not put our COUNTRY IVER ONE MAN! WHAT DO THEY SAY ABOUT FALSE PROFITS AND FOLLOWING ONE MAN LIKE HE CAN DO NO WRONG N MATTER HOW MANY TIMES HE BREAKS THE LAW! I am not trying to be rude or disrespectful. I just want you to look up her voting record and then say who she caucuses with!
      Have republicans voted to pass bills? Yes they have! And you know what, it’s going to bring even more high paying jobs to America, which makes us a stronger! The chips act, will have companies make chips in America that go in many different products. They passed a bill to give health care to veterans. They passed a transportation bill, all with bipartisan support!
      Before you attack Liz’s voting record look it up! If you are worried about if she will go along with the craziness that the Republicans are talking about, investigating everyone and impeaching everyone well then you are right she won’t go along with that nonsense! When are Republicans going to start doing things for the middle class and not just for corporations. Clean air again hopefully. Maybe asthmatics can breathe again and all these terrible floods, fires, tornadoes, hurricanes, etc. will stop being so bad! And if you don’t think that they are bad ask the people that have had to go through it

  31. Cheney wins or loses it will be a close margin. Too close for a comfortable feeling for those arrayed against her. Laws will be created requiring lifetime fealty to the republican party in order to vote in their primary.

  32. Liz votes over 90% with Wyoming GOP conservatives yet when she finds fault with Trump his sheep call her a RINO? To me she is one of few republicans in WY that have a backbone.

  33. Excellent article.
    Hardest decision I’ve ever made to change parties and vote for a candidate that thinks alternative energy is ridiculous. This primary is not a normal one, I usually vote for a candidate that represents my interests (global warming is real). Today I voted for an individual that is merely presenting the Facts!!! January 6 was real. Liz has put her entire career on the line, with great fortitude to show the American public the facts.
    For those people who refuse to watch the hearings, some of you I once thought were very smart open minded individuals, are denying yourselves education. Sometimes reality is hard to except!!! You can watch and have your opinion but you need to watch to understand what happened, it was clearly directed and encouraged By Trump you are denying yourself the Facts. Watching the hearings is horrifying. How can anyone deny the validity of the constitution and an individual that brings its value front and center to all of our lives?
    January 6th was appallingly orchestrated by Mr Trump. I didn’t understand the magnitude until I watched the hearings. Liz is to be commended for her Sincerity of bringing the truth to the American public. I vote to uphold the constitution!!!!! I would vote for any individual that had the strength and fortitude to do as Liz is doing.

    1. Back in the 50’s I was a teenager. “I liked Ike”. I expected the Democrats to come up with new ideas and Republicans to ask if those ideas were cost effective. Bipartisanship was considered a good thing. I read about President George Bush wanting a metric by which congress could determine the effectiveness of new legislation. Times have changed. It seems that the parties are at war and anything goes. So I now almost always split my ticket on Election Day. Elizabeth Cheney has brought integrity to the GOP so it has become a more viable option for me to choose from.

    2. I can’t vote in this primary because I don’t live there. However, if I did there is no way I would vote for Liz Chaney. I’m seventy years old and can say with certainty that I’m fed up with all things rhino and establishment. I too have watched the so called committee’s investigation. From my view, they have presented nothing more than hearsay, character assassination, half truths, and doctored evidence. I say all this to say that while I don’t like Donald Trump his policies were go for our country. The current administration is trying to destroy our country. I do appreciate you position on this race but I can’t agree with it.

      1. Must I go on here all day and correct the tRump supporters??? THE SAYING IS RINO not RHINO. By the time I am 70 years old I am hoping I have not lost the ability to think for myself. Tim not only can you not vote here you make no sense. How is all this evidence they are presenting fabricated??? Because tRump and FAUX news is saying so??? To think the current administration is destroying this country is pure comedy. The last administration is doing his best to do that on his own and he has a cult following that is willing to help.

    3. I watched some of the January 6th hearing and listened to Liz quote Trump on January 6th. She quoted his speech up to the point when he said we will now march to the capitol. Liz failed to quote his next sentence which was to peacefully march. She lied by omission right there and I stopped watching the hearing.

    4. Well she’s expected to vote with the majority of Republicans bills. Duh. But she’s not expected to vote against her own party on extremely serious issues including disrespecting her same party president. Now she’s the face of the joke they call j6 hearings. She’s got what’s coming to her.

    5. I thank you from a Democratic in Missouri. I agree with you 100%. I don’t agree with any of Liz Cheney’s views on political issues, however I am so proud of her. She stands for DEMOCRACY AND THE CONSTITUTION OVER LOYALTY TO ONE MAN! Our democracy is at stake and under attack. We need courageous people and people that take their oath seriously and don’t bow to one man just so they can have power! It’s disgusting!

    6. It was a great made for TV movie. They had to pay the editing department overtime to get a real sense of what actually never took place. End the end, the “deadly” 1-6 insurrection, only ended in the death of one person, an unarmed veteran who was no threat to the person who shot her. A man with horns and a few seniors never really amounted to “insurrection”.

  34. Liz Cheney is not a republican as evidenced by her crossing over and siding with Democrats, she is a rhino 🦏. She is representing a conservative state but her actions are contradictory. It is not fair to the people of Wyoming. She should change her party affiliation.

    1. Come on Monica, have you seen her voting record? She is as conservative as one gets in this game of politics. She is indeed no RINO.

    2. First off you misspelled RINO which means Republicant In Name Only. I am guessing you have voted for Liz up to the point that she challenged tRump. Liz voted with tRump’s policies around 93% of the time which means she is most definitely a Republicant. I keep saying if people take tRump out this election equation then I would have never voted for Cheney as a Democrat and you would have continued to vote for Liz.

  35. The clarity is that blackening the oval alongside Liz Cheney’s name on the ballot is not really a vote ” FOR” Liz Cheney . It is a more a vote “AGAINST” Donald Trump through his proxy.

    We should not vote for Liz. We should vote WITH her. We would be voting for upholding the Constitution , and decidedly against the Big Lie the GOP has been fostering for nearly forty years now…

  36. Ms. Cheney is hardly a Wyominite! Just like Hillary moved to New York and became a Senator there, Liz did the same in Wyoming. The animosity between the Cheney camp and Trump goes back a long ways, and the Jan 6 committee is just a reprisal for all the comments Trump made about Dick and Liz who are true war/foreign policy hawks. I would just as soon she went away quietly, and no more dynasties like the Bush/Clinton families.

  37. That Liz Cheney’s Fighting Chance rely solely on Democrat votes and her 7 million War chest is 92% funded by out-of-state left wing donors and groups speaks for itself

  38. Pure propaganda. Here’s the key sentence: “ Cheney would need to find an additional 30,000 votes beyond her core GOP support to retain her seat.” Given that Liz no longer has any “core GOP support” the entire premise of this article is hokum. There’s a lot of monkey business that will have to transpire for Liz to win.

    1. “…her core GOP support…” and “…core GOP support…” are not the same. The pronoun HER makes all the difference.

      Undoubtedly Cheney has some Republican supporters, and equally likely many of those Cheney camp supporters are longtime GOP members and are not crossovers. That said, it’s equally likely GOP voters as a whole do not (as polls indicate) support Cheney.

      Just because you don’t like an article doesn’t make it “propaganda.”

      1. And just because cheney doesn’t like Trump doesn’t make her opinion any more valid. The fact that she voted with Trump 95+% of the time shows that she is not running against his policies, she is running against a person who hurt her feelings when Trump disparaged the Bush/cheney administration. If you are happy with the status quo (in the country) then by all means vote for cheney.

  39. There are several issues I disagree with Congresswoman Cheney, yet she has put nation before party, been ethical and would have my vote in November

    Kindly, Steven L. Hanft & Family

  40. And if my grandmother had wheels, she’d be a wagon.
    I guarantee that Cheney lost votes yesterday.
    That Hail Mary was a huge mistake.
    We are awake now and the old deceptions and new criminal actions are obvious.

  41. If Cheney is able to win the primary, a person would have to give the Democrats a 50/50 shot at winning the general election for her seat in November. When someone is as disliked by their base as Cheney is, I’d guess quite a few Republicans would just choose to not vote for her at all. Lots of dynamics at play here. Be interesting to see what happens.

  42. Brilliant, Jonathan.
    Thank you.
    I cannot help but think that Trump voters are simply lacking in education—civics and Constitution education— because our friend Dick Cheney , under whom I served 2006-8, is right—Trump is the greatest threat to our Republic ever. Fake electoral certifications ? Give me a break. Based on facts evinced by Liz and her Jan 6 Committee , I view the crime of providing false information to Congress by Trump and his aides as easy to prove , the FBI is clearly on to this and investigating, and I seriously doubt Trump voters want to vote on an indicted candidate

    1. Mike I disagree with you and Chaney. Greatest threat to USA is sitting in Oval Office and the democrat controlled congress. There lies greatest threat. $4.5 billion more to Ukraine plus $1 billion in military aid. All given with 0 oversite! 1/3 of military aid is not reaching front lines. Highly likely a lot of the money aid is laundered back thru DC as kick backs. The Chaney’s just don’t want their cash cow to end. There lies a threat to USA as well. Don’t forget Dick Chaney was part of the group that was so wrong on Iraq!! Huge part he played in that mess

      1. The boomer doom and gloom viewpoint is always entertaining. But, I think you have just unknowingly proven Mr. Halloran’s point.

  43. While I would never vote for Ms. Cheney in a General Election I would more in a primary just to stick my finger in the eye of Trump and his band of crazies. If your listening to My Pillow Guy and buying it your a Crazy!

  44. The National Media has picked up this race and reports that Ms. Cheney has spent little of her large war chest on the Wyoming race which leads to speculation that she might be contemplating a run for President. She’s getting huge publicity .( Meanwhile Trump’s Mar Al Lago residence was inspected by the FBI , a very rare occurrence, that requires a lot of proof before permission is granted for the raid. The agents are apparently looking for presidential papers that belong to the Federal archives– a big no no to take them and in some cases try to “flush” them, which he also did ) Cheney is sounding “presidential, ” recently blasted our Lauren Boebert ( ugh) and Marjorie Taylor Greene, ( bigger ugh) saying she would rather work with responsible Democrats in Congress than them, even if she disagrees with the Democrats’ policies . She also said numerous Republicans in In government have said they agree with her about Trump but won’t say so publicly .To have a presidential candidate from Wyoming .Wow! What an honor for the state.

    1. Boy, hardly know where to start.
      1. Name me a presidential candidate who has done well in a presidential election after not being able to carry their home state? At least in the last 50 years. She has zero chance in a national election. She loses Wyoming, her political career is through.
      2. Mar a Lago was not inspected, it was raided. If you have a warrant and a subpoena, that is not an inspection.
      3. Several points on the documents. If Trump were trying to steal documents, he could have simply declassified them. Intent is everything. To get an obama appointed judge to sign off on the subpoena with inaccuracies in them is not difficult. Remember the FISA court believed the FBI lies about the Russian dossier that caused a 2 year investigation (special council) headed up by a vast majority of Trump haters. Further you have h. clinton who had some 30,000 classified emails that she destroyed and the selective FBI wouldn’t do anything about it.
      3. Now you have her saying she wouldn’t work with Greene and others who she disagrees with because they are too radical. These are just opinions. Fact: 13% of her own party agree with her. Are you saying that she and the 13% are right and 87% are wrong? That is narcissism on her part.

      Again, you like what is happening in the country right now, vote for cheney. Let’s just wait until Tuesday and see if there are enough crossovers to make it competitive. My guess is there are not. A vote for cheney is a vote for the swamp.

  45. Excellent article.

    I think Cheney’s policy stance is being hurt by her lack of connection to the state and “carpetbagger” image. If she were “from” a Wyoming town similar to say Barbara Cubin, she would not have been nearly as impacted by her stance against Trump.

    1. Pretty good opinion. Cheney has long been dogged by the carpetbagger label, even before Trump.